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Corn Market Review for 6/18/2010

July Corn finished up 3 1/4 at 360 3/4, 5 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.  December Corn closed up 2 1/4 at 380 1/2. This was 4 1/4 up from the low and 4 1/4 off the high.

December corn moved higher today in conjunction with rallies in soybeans, wheat and gold.  The early surge was credited to ideas that weather in the Midwest may be hotter than earlier anticipated over the next week and that the 90-degree plus coverage may extend farther north than previously expected. However, this system is expected to trigger frequent thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest into next week with somewhat more general rains again hitting the western Corn Belt. Today’s gains took the December contract to its highest level since May 28th, although the market fell short of the 100-day moving average. Traders will be watching crop weather in the US and in China over the weekend. One analyst noted that the current rally has also been buoyed by a series of strong weekly export sales totals. Weekly sales have been above 1 million tonne mark on 9 out of the past 11 weekly reports. Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture raised its estimate of 2009/10 corn production to 22.7 million tonnes from its earlier projection of 21.0 million.

Wheat MarketCommentary for 6/18/2010

July Wheat closed down 1 at 461 3/4, 8 1/4 off the high and 3 up from the low. December Wheat ended unchanged at 508 3/4. This was 8 1/4 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low.

Overnight, December wheat traded mostly lower before rallying to higher on the day into early mid session and again into late morning. Traders said that fund buying and short covering by other specs ahead of the weekend helped to spark today’s rally along with the continued supportive effect from wet weather and lost acreage in Canada. Today Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry released various crop data  including its planted area for the 2010/11 wheat crop. It raised its preliminary wheat area to 4.4 million hectares from a prior projection  of 3.52 million. KC and Minneapolis wheat gained on Chicago today with traders crediting gains to the wet weather in Canada along with a surge in export sales for spring and hard red winterwheat on the USDA’s latest Export Sales report. A recent slowdown in the hard red winter wheat harvest may have also lent some background support according to one analyst, although harvest is resuming in Kansas today.

 

Soybean Complex Market Analysis for 6/18/2010

July Soybeans finished up 9 at 961, 8 1/2 up from the low and 1/4 off the high. November Soybeans closed up 5 1/2 at 930 1/2. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 4 1/2 off the high.

November soybeans moved higher overnight and then extended its gains to start the day session. This took the November contract above the 100-day moving average for the second day in a row with the November contract trading at the highest level since May 24th this morning in the process. Traders credited the gains to evening-up ahead of the weekend, weather and a move to a new all-time highs by gold. The weather story revolves mainly around heat, with 90 degree plus temperatures pushing well into the north central Corn Belt today as expected. The hottest weather is expected to linger over most of the Midwest over the next week, with the 90-degree temperatures occasionally retreating from the northern Midwest. That is expected to spark regular thunderstorm activity, which could help to mitigate the high temperatures. One analyst noted that soybeans are still far from their critical flowering stage and they have an ability to recuperate from a good deal of early heat stress. Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry raised its estimate of its 2009/10 soybean crop to a new record of 54.0 million tonnes, up from their previous estimate of 53.5 million.

July Soymeal closed up 3.4 at 289.4. This was 0.1 off the high and 3.5 up from the low.

July Soybean Oil finished down 0.13 at 37.92, 0.06 up from the low and 0.38 off the high.

July Oats closed up 1 3/4 at 263. This was 10 3/4 up from the low and 5 1/2 off the high.

July Rice finished down 0.03 at 11.005, equal to the high and 0.035 up from the low.

This blog is published by Andy Waldock.  Andy Waldock is a trader, analyst, broker and asset manager.  As a result, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his family in any market discussed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a discussion among those with an interest in the commodity markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and may not be appropriate for all investors. There is substantial risk in investing in futures.

The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a rundown of each commodity’s traded price activity, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule.  CME Group provides market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, gold and silver.